Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8546…4464 crypto 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,047 (-12%) realized −$2,047 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%113W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$450
14 days−$450
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,340
other 1% −$109
politics 0% −$55
world 0% −$15
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -24.7% -31.9% 35% 33% -23.7%
≤30d 55 -24.7% -31.9% 35% 33% -23.7%
≤90d 139 -41.4% -47.0% 26% 24% -28.6%
all 356 -17.9% -25.7% 32% 29% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 29% -23.0%
10% -32.9% 26% -30.3%
15% -39.3% 20% -37.1%
20% -45.3% 17% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,047
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses113 / 243
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage127d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $175 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$33 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$127 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $84 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $115 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $84 +$24 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$33 +126%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$59 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$24 +76%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$20 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$44 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$45 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$72 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$149 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $89 +$20 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $44 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $190 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1503 history records