Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8546…35b8 sports 101 markets active 22h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,719 (+4%) realized +$4,719 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%83W / 18L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,173per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$1,266est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$489
7 days+$1,042
14 days+$2,627
30 days+$3,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$3,813
other 11% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +65.7% +49.9% 84% 10% -7.6%
≤30d 101 +27.5% +15.3% 82% 20% -6.6%
≤90d 101 +27.5% +15.3% 82% 20% -6.6%
all 101 +27.5% +15.3% 82% 20% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.3% 20% -6.6%
10% +4.3% 8% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -5.8% 7% -23.7%
20% -15.0% 4% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$129 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,719
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses83 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,266
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,173
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $3,523 +$10 +0%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $2,383 +$234 +10%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $4,002 +$80 +2%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $323 +$5 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $608 +$23 +4%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $876 +$131 +15%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $3,945 +$78 +2%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $4,002 −$13 -0%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $42 +$6 +15%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $4,002 +$115 +3%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $451 +$4 +1%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $2,630 +$95 +4%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $4,023 +$31 +1%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $3,012 +$82 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,920 +$8 +0%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,667 +$83 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$4 +2%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Carolina Alves Jun 13 $527 +$52 +10%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $569 −$165 -29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$16 -18%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $293 +$1 +0%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $1,895 +$74 +4%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $900 +$17 +2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,007 +$82 +8%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $2,001 +$7 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,304 +$10 +1%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $4,648 +$270 +6%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $325 +$19 +6%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $3,001 +$91 +3%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $3,353 +$408 +12%
ITF Guimaraes: Manon Leonard vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 11 $94 +$26 +28%
ITF Decatur: Maria Sholokhova vs Anna Rogers Jun 11 $418 +$31 +7%
ITF Cuiaba: Josefina Estevez vs Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca Jun 11 $284 −$6 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3,163 +$67 +2%
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 10 $9 −$2 -18%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $92 +$1 +1%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $5,578 −$1,516 -27%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $2,201 +$82 +4%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $2,074 +$256 +12%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $429 +$16 +4%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $2,014 +$179 +9%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $134 $0 -0%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $1,738 +$40 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $92 −$3 -4%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $917 +$88 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 89¢ $1,870 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 78¢ $252 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 21¢ $9 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 12¢ $4 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 12¢ $1 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 28¢ $176 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 23¢ $35 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $27 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $28 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $1 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $6 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $6 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $24 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $16 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 31¢ $41 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 26¢ $13 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 20¢ $4 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 45¢ $9 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 47¢ $13 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 47¢ $3 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 47¢ $9 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 63¢ $3 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 63¢ $211 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 63¢ $2 22h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 81¢ $9 23h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $252 23h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 42¢ $197 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 1052 history records