Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x8548…e4c1 sports 1060 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,148 (+8%) realized +$24,145 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%1007W / 50L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$517
7 days+$1,279
14 days+$2,425
30 days+$3,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$17,527
other 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -2.0% -11.4% 96% 1% -8.0%
≤30d 508 +15.8% +4.8% 95% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 1057 +24.1% +12.3% 95% 7% -6.2%
all 1057 +24.1% +12.3% 95% 7% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 7% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.5% 4% -15.2%
15% -8.3% 3% -23.4%
20% -17.3% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.09 per $1 lost it wins $10.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$24,145
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1007 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1057 / 1060
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1057 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs So:sweet (+1.5) Dplus 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+1%)
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Dplus 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$2 (+1%)
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner Dplus 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $170 +$5 +3%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $53 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $256 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6,092 +$114 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $82 +$2 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Clutchain (-3.5) vs LPH Gaming (+3.5) Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,517 +$46 +3%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $216 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $2,961 +$35 +1%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1,446 +$18 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $454 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $5,231 +$263 +5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $292 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $848 +$9 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3,390 +$67 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,795 +$48 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,593 +$26 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-9.5) vs Monte (+9.5) Jun 14 $352 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 14 $352 +$3 +1%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $248 +$2 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $555 +$35 +6%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1,048 +$18 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-6.5) vs Monte (+6.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Lea Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $759 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1,092 +$11 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner BUY Dplus 99¢ $6 36m
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs So:sweet (+1.5) BUY Dplus 99¢ $198 37m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 99¢ $61 1h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 98¢ $49 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $53 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 97¢ $166 2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $495 3h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,207 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5,847 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $245 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $149 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $99 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $49 21h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $33 21h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $506 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $72 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $242 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $205 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $38 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 95¢ $21 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 95¢ $377 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 95¢ $47 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 86¢ $9 22h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $216 23h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 99¢ $209 23h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 99¢ $7 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.68 · official $316.68 (match) · 3500 history records