Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

85 0x8549…33b0 other 6 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$96 (-36%) realized −$96 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-38.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-31.7%	-38.2%	50%	50%	-42.4%
≤30d	6	-31.7%	-38.2%	50%	50%	-42.4%
≤90d	6	-31.7%	-38.2%	50%	50%	-42.4%
all	6	-31.7%	-38.2%	50%	50%	-42.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.2%	50%	-42.4%
10%	-44.1%	33%	-47.9%
15%	-49.5%	33%	-52.9%
20%	-54.5%	0%	-57.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$49 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$96

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$74	−$74	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$22	+$4	+18%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$23	−$23	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$39	+$16	+42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$59	+$29	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$27	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$26	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$47	3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	29¢	$23	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$22	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$51	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$39	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$59	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records