Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x854a…5e9e crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,450 (-13%) realized −$21,559 · open +$1,109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%53W / 54L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,455per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1,367est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$5,346
14 days−$5,340
30 days−$24,682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$12,153
other 22% −$8,845
crypto 9% −$145
world 0% −$230
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 37% -34.3%
≤30d 88 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 35% -47.4%
≤90d 105 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 38% -23.0%
all 107 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 37% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 37% -23.1%
10% -31.7% 27% -30.5%
15% -38.3% 22% -37.2%
20% -44.3% 12% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$484 vs −$891 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$12,204
Realized−$21,559
Unrealized+$1,109
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,367
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,455
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $10,790 $11,044 +$254 (+2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 0¢ 40¢ $0 $700 +$700 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $303 $458 +$155 (+51%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $964 −$160 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $1,629 −$95 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $258 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $888 +$717 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $482 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $1,455 +$180 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $2,285 +$320 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $695 −$40 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $383 −$376 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $794 −$766 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $230 +$79 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $464 +$180 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $387 +$115 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $259 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$55 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $203 −$124 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $127 +$81 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $326 −$156 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$29 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $227 −$216 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $513 +$321 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $348 −$276 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $163 −$76 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$32 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $89 −$47 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $282 +$154 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $87 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $223 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $236 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $232 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $168 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $232 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $232 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $135 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $230 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,203.97 · official $12,199.39 (match) · 767 history records