Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x854b…e720 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$342 (-4%) realized −$392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days+$125
14 days−$175
30 days−$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.6% +11.8% 67% 67% +3.4%
≤30d 25 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 44% -20.4%
≤90d 46 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 50% -13.8%
all 46 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 50% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -13.8%
10% -19.7% 39% -22.0%
15% -27.5% 39% -29.6%
20% -34.6% 35% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$180 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage47d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 43¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 42¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Movistar KOI 46¢ 0¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 52¢ 0¢ $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Dplus KIA 52¢ 0¢ $496 $0 −$496 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 46¢ 0¢ $341 $0 −$341 (-100%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Fluxo W7M 50¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Oh My God 34¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 42¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Tundra Esports 47¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner CCG Esports 54¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 49¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner LGD Gaming 67¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Karmine Corp 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner ThunderTalk Gaming 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner FlyQuest 43¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $420 +$79 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $199 +$301 +152%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $256 −$256 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $496 −$496 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $347 −$341 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $322 −$322 -100%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 06 $306 +$334 +109%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $390 −$390 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $206 −$202 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $304 +$196 +65%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $463 +$937 +202%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $138 −$137 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $283 +$349 +124%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $84 +$67 +79%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $112 +$48 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $299 −$295 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $152 +$148 +97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $239 −$235 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $15 +$15 +97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 21 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $605 +$76 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $102 +$127 +125%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 13 $104 +$111 +107%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $103 +$46 +44%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $208 −$204 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $104 +$100 +97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 10 $203 +$154 +76%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $301 +$45 +15%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $102 −$32 -32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner May 09 $152 +$174 +114%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 09 $101 +$84 +83%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 09 $102 +$104 +102%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $51 +$74 +146%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Apr 29 $1 $0 -1%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $24 +$1 +4%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $19 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $499 1h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 84¢ $420 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $199 10h
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 50¢ $256 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 52¢ $389 7d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 52¢ $107 7d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 46¢ $347 7d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $322 7d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $195 7d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $77 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $2 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $4 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $5 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $5 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $78 8d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $24 8d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 46¢ $206 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $94 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $9 8d
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) BUY FURIA Esports 47¢ $306 8d
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA 60¢ $304 8d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 54¢ $54 9d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 54¢ $17 9d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 54¢ $42 9d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 54¢ $3 9d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 54¢ $9 9d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 20¢ $102 12d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 40¢ $6 12d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 40¢ $34 12d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY Vivo Keyd Stars Academy 40¢ $103 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records