Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x854d…deb0 sports 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 878d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,726 (+0%) realized −$41 · open +$1,767
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%130W / 189L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,144per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 878d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1,138
world 24% −$15,701
sports 16% +$24,874
politics 13% −$14,379
culture 4% +$1,329
finance 4% +$1,436
economics 3% +$6,519
tech 2% +$400
crypto 0% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 100% +0.5%
≤30d 3 -11.0% -19.4% 67% 67% +11.2%
≤90d 26 -46.2% -51.4% 31% 27% -11.2%
all 319 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 39% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 38% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 36% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 34% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$992 vs −$679 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

878d coverage
Net worth$28,595
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$1,767
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses130 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)319 / 324
History coverage878d
Avg bet$1,144
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 66¢ 88¢ $10,000 $13,262 +$3,262 (+33%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $8,910 $9,762 +$852 (+10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 48¢ $6,500 $4,750 −$1,750 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $460 $508 +$48 (+10%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 19¢ $958 $312 −$645 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $8,100 +$900 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6,411 +$3,589 +56%
Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 31 $951 −$951 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $597 −$597 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,260 +$740 +59%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 02 $2,230 −$111 -5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $950 +$50 +5%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10 Apr 28 $575 −$575 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? Apr 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 19 $1,500 −$746 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $3,000 −$481 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $3,000 +$554 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $800 −$442 -55%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $2,000 +$592 +30%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 07 $390 −$390 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 07 $3,500 +$1,500 +43%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $10,599 +$1,933 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 23 $3,000 −$497 -17%
Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-01-26? Mar 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-01-26? Mar 05 $310 −$310 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 05 $56 −$56 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 05 $2,960 −$2,960 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Mar 05 $206 −$206 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Mar 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $1,331 +$3,284 +247%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $1,123 +$6,363 +567%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $6,566 +$4,507 +69%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $972 +$1,028 +106%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 09 $1,080 +$1,120 +104%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 04 $6,977 +$104 +2%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $290 +$710 +245%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $420 +$580 +138%
Will Eyüpspor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? Jan 26 $400 −$70 -18%
Dota 2: BTC Gaming vs Agressiv Style (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
CA Barracas Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Jan 26 $450 −$450 -100%
Telstar 1963 vs. AZ: O/U 1.5 Jan 26 $450 −$450 -100%
Will FC Annecy win on 2026-01-23? Jan 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 26 $400 −$400 -100%
US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 Jan 26 $430 −$430 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5 Jan 26 $410 −$410 -100%
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 26 $480 −$480 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $473 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6,500 14h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $53 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $22 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $23 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $87 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $52 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $178 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $34 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $53 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $53 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $53 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $264 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $200 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,594.65 · official $28,596.65 (match) · 2387 history records