Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8551…1a3b crypto 184 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%170W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$0
14 days−$18
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$16
politics 7% +$5
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 176 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 1% -10.1%
≤90d 176 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 1% -10.1%
all 176 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses170 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)176 / 184
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.26 · official $156.26 (match) · 367 history records