Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8557…6f88
sports · 183 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$695 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$578 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$538
Realized−$578
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses90 / 79
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions13
Markets (closed)169 / 183
History coverage103d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 13 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$375
14 days−$893
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 67¢ 63¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) KT Rolster 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Eintracht Spandau 65¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) G2 NORD 70¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 3 Winner Forsaken 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs fnatic 58¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) EDward Gaming Youth Team 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Eintracht Spandau 38¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Forsaken 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Gen.G Global Academy 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) UCAM Esports Club 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BOMBA Team 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs GIANTX 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 +$41 +101%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 12 $102 −$45 -44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $141 −$137 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$97 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $50 +$12 +24%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$39 +129%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$65 +92%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$29 +57%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$181 +354%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$53 +172%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: PS (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $138 +$190 +138%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $191 −$189 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $51 +$40 +79%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$30 +60%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $40 +$10 +25%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$15 +37%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 10 $61 +$25 +40%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$25 +50%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$31 +62%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 −$1 -1%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5) Jun 09 $40 +$15 +36%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs GOAL (+1.5) Jun 09 $50 +$23 +45%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $202 +$88 +44%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $40 +$12 +30%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $30 −$6 -19%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$28 +55%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$39 +76%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$65 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$31 +62%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $161 +$52 +32%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $61 +$35 +57%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$21 +42%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $141 +$51 +36%
Game Handicap: WU (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $101 +$38 +38%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Game Handicap: CCG (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5) Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$484
other 8% −$193
crypto 1% −$19
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $51 2h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 65¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 7h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 7h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 7h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $51 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 7h
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 21¢ $55 7h
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 1¢ $21 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 1¢ $10 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 1¢ $5 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 1¢ $2 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 6¢ $21 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 8¢ $31 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 8¢ $21 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $21 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 18¢ $31 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 11¢ $21 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 17h
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) BUY G2 NORD 70¢ $40 18h
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 49¢ $41 18h
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 20¢ $20 26h
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 23¢ $31 27h
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BOMBA Team 16¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $50 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +20.0% +8.5% 65% 65% +1.5%
≤30d 166 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 51% -10.1%
≤90d 169 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 51% -10.4%
all 169 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 51% -10.4%
10% -20.8% 47% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 40% -26.8%
20% -35.5% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.69 · official $587.70 · 366 history records