Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8559…c9f7 sports 683 markets active 4h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$285 (-7%) realized −$288 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%199W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$77
14 days−$19
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$481
other 24% −$39
crypto 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +14.8% +3.9% 35% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 155 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 30% -22.3%
≤90d 493 -22.4% -29.8% 27% 26% -24.3%
all 680 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 28% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 28% -23.6%
10% -33.6% 26% -30.9%
15% -40.0% 24% -37.6%
20% -45.9% 23% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses199 / 481
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)680 / 683
History coverage128d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $89 $77 −$12 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $54 $61 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$25 +29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$20 +113%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 −$17 -69%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$13 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$15 +39%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$5 +224%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$26 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $28 +$17 +59%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $27 +$11 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$23 -46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 −$5 -35%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$23 +104%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$18 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$17 +542%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$13 +249%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$13 +253%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$29 +165%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$1 -10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $61 +$36 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $88 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $8 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $10 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $24 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $11 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $42 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $20 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 80¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 24¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 49¢ $4 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $57 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 3¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 90¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $30 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.52 · official $216.52 (match) · 1553 history records