Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

85 0x855b…8f27 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 429d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$211 (-59%) realized −$210 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 429d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-54.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-88.4%	-89.5%	0%	0%	-89.5%
≤30d	1	-88.4%	-89.5%	0%	0%	-89.5%
≤90d	1	-88.4%	-89.5%	0%	0%	-89.5%
all	3	-49.8%	-54.6%	33%	33%	-77.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.6%	33%	-77.8%
10%	-59.0%	33%	-79.9%
15%	-62.9%	0%	-81.9%
20%	-66.6%	0%	-83.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -88% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$128 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized−$210

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage429d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$28	$27	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$41	−$36	-88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Apr 30	$33	+$8	+26%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Apr 29	$254	−$220	-87%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	16¢	$8	16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	6¢	$5	17m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	46¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	SELL Up	64¢	$42	423d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	51¢	$33	424d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	SELL Yes	3¢	$34	424d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	426d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$157	428d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$29	428d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$6	428d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$11	428d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.72 · official $26.72 (match) · 12 history records