Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x855c…01b9 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$130 (+29%) realized +$132 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$125
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +29.5%
≤30d 3 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +29.5%
≤90d 3 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +29.5%
all 3 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 67% +29.5%
10% -7.4% 67% +17.1%
15% -16.4% 67% +5.8%
20% -24.6% 33% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$29 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $81 +$80 +98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $182 +$75 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $50 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $30 44h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $161 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $257 44h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $81 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $182 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.03 · official $147.03 (match) · 8 history records