Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x855d…a944 politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+4%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$37
other 30% +$2
world 25% $0
tech 5% −$2
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +18.8% +7.5% 44% 4% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 4% -6.2%
10% -2.8% 4% -15.2%
15% -12.2% 2% -23.4%
20% -20.8% 2% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.46 per $1 lost it wins $7.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage449d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $43 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election? Aug 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $41 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 16 $41 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $0 $0 +10%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 02 $33 −$2 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $2 $0 -15%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $3 +$34 +1063%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 30m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $42 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $1 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $42 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 41h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $31 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $9 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $30 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $21 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records