Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x855e…de25 weather 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,857 (-3%) realized −$1,725 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate48%210W / 229L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day62.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$225
14 days+$66
30 days−$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$925
other 35% −$490
finance 1% +$75
politics 1% −$160
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -87.7% -88.9% 7% 3% -13.9%
≤30d 257 -59.1% -63.0% 27% 10% -12.8%
≤90d 439 -32.0% -38.5% 48% 17% -11.8%
all 439 -32.0% -38.5% 48% 17% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 17% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 6% -20.3%
15% -49.7% 5% -28.0%
20% -54.7% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$35 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,980
Realized−$1,725
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses210 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)439 / 308
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day62.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 78¢ 100¢ $826 $1,056 +$230 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $604 $634 +$30 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $289 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 51°F or below on May 14 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Unchosen" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on April 29? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 8? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 29? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 23°C or below on May 15? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 14h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $66 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $233 18h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 22h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,979.65 · official $1,979.33 (match) · 3500 history records