Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x8561…ce01 crypto 2060 markets active 4d ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,044 (-10%) realized −$1,044 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%828W / 840L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day91.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,660
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -68.3% -71.3% 13% 13% -69.1%
≤30d 1458 +19.8% +8.4% 51% 51% +6.7%
≤90d 1668 +15.6% +4.6% 50% 50% +5.5%
all 1668 +15.6% +4.6% 50% 50% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 50% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 50% -4.6%
15% -14.6% 50% -13.8%
20% -22.9% 50% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses828 / 840
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1668 / 2060
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1668 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records