Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8563…5e98
sports · 1488 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,375 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,338 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$144
Realized−$2,338
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1449 / 75
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1524 / 1488
History coverage9d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day280.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 1524 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,392
7 days−$2,547
14 days−$2,338
30 days−$2,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 56¢ 46¢ $112 $92 −$20 (-18%)
Ilkley (Doubles): Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Brooks/Rajecki 99¢ 50¢ $74 $38 −$37 (-49%)
Set 1 Winner: Podoroska vs Alarcon Alarcon 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
WTT - Women's Singles: Miwa Harimoto vs Yuling Zhu Harimoto 99¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Salford City FC 1 - 2 Grimsby Town FC? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 0 CD Mirandés? No 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: CA Grau 1 - 0 CD Moquegua? No 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 2 Real Racing Club? No 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2026-05-15? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2? Under 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Group C Oasis Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bolelli/Vavassori vs. Harrison/Skupski: Match O/U 23.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Will SK Poltava win on 2026-05-01? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Athletics 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Salford City FC 1 - 2 Grimsby Town FC? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 0 CD Mirandés? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: CA Grau 1 - 0 CD Moquegua? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 2 Real Racing Club? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2026-05-15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Gro Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bolelli/Vavassori vs. Harrison/Skupski: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SK Poltava win on 2026-05-01? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Venezia FC vs. Palermo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Yaneva vs. Pigato: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: TrinitY vs Jade Lions - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: SSC Bari (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: OAS (-1.5) vs Fancy United (+1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Oeiras 4: Completed Match: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Bonzi (+2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Trungelliti (-2.5) vs Jacquet (+2.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FPX (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Machac (-2.5) vs Bergs (+2.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-2.5) vs Droguet (+2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Orgryte IS 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Halys (-2.5) vs Bellucci (+2.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 0 - 3 AC Sparta Praha? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. SSC Bari: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Frantzen/Haase vs. Barrientos/Behar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Galloway/Peers vs Altmaier/Fonseca Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$850
other 5% −$6
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Podoroska vs Alarcon BUY Alarcon 98¢ $10 32m
WTT - Women's Singles: Miwa Harimoto vs Yuling Zhu BUY Harimoto 99¢ $6 40m
Set 1 Winner: Galloway/Peers vs Altmaier/Fonseca BUY Galloway/Peers 80¢ $8 57m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 99¢ $7 1h
Jacob Fearnley vs. Yunchaokete Bu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $5 1h
Set 1 Winner: Oliveira vs Hernandez SELL Hernandez 100¢ $100 1h
Set 1 Winner: Oliveira vs Hernandez BUY Hernandez 99¢ $99 1h
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu SELL Vekic 100¢ $100 1h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $201 1h
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu BUY Vekic 99¢ $99 1h
Donna Vekic vs. Emma Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $13 1h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 99¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 99¢ $11 1h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 99¢ $82 1h
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 89¢ $90 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $20 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $0 2h
Majchrzak vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $100 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $99 2h
Viktorija Golubic vs. Sofia Kenin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $5 2h
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Ruzic vs. Preston: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $80 3h
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 3h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $33 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 90¢ $36 3h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 99¢ $68 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1297 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 1% -14.3%
≤30d 1524 -2.0% -11.4% 95% 2% -13.1%
≤90d 1524 -2.0% -11.4% 95% 2% -13.1%
all 1524 -2.0% -11.4% 95% 2% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover280.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 2% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -21.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -29.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.16 · official $144.16 (match) · 3500 history records