Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8565…daca crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$34 (+5%) realized +$13 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% -13.3%
≤30d 36 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% -13.3%
≤90d 36 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% -13.3%
all 36 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 44% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 42% -21.6%
15% -14.6% 36% -29.2%
20% -23.0% 36% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 0¢ 46¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$22 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$59 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$42 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$46 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$20 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$43 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $27 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.46 · official $24.39 · 81 history records