Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8565…0c43
sports · 690 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$96,952 -82%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$104,217 · open +$7,265
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,705
Realized−$104,217
Unrealized+$7,265
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses316 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions35
Markets (closed)906 / 690
History coverage87d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 35 History 906 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101,461
7 days−$99,000
14 days−$98,171
30 days−$93,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 63¢ 79¢ $9,524 $11,850 +$2,326 (+24%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $6,608 $9,920 +$3,311 (+50%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 66¢ 77¢ $5,897 $6,930 +$1,032 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 74¢ 100¢ $2,607 $3,483 +$876 (+34%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $2,050 $2,759 +$709 (+35%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $609 $540 −$69 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $44 $25 −$20 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $350 $11 −$339 (-97%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 15¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-49%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-81%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Mentality Monster 89¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-55%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $209 $4 −$205 (-98%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $142 $2 −$140 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $79 $2 −$78 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $938 −$938 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $620 −$620 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026? Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $817 −$817 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 16? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $387 −$387 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $543 −$543 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $597 −$597 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 12 $723 −$723 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 12 $813 −$813 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$4,787
tech 26% +$8,059
sports 17% +$632
culture 2% +$1,078
crypto 1% +$245
politics 0% −$33
world 0% +$15
weather 0% +$131
finance 0% −$170
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 41m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 42m
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 89¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $135 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $174 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $495 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $126 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $423 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 91¢ $365 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 84¢ $84 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,080 18h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $158 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $30 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $43 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $64 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $20 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $104 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $163 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $108 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 48¢ $105 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 30¢ $154 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 46¢ $369 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 -72.7% -75.3% 13% 11% -84.6%
≤30d 595 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 30% -67.3%
≤90d 906 -34.8% -41.0% 35% 31% -59.6%
all 906 -34.8% -41.0% 35% 31% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 31% -59.6%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 23% -63.5%
15% -51.8% 15% -67.0%
20% -56.5% 10% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,704.57 · official $35,705.22 (match) · 3500 history records