Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x8568…bc38 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$339 (-6%) realized −$312 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2,786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$286
14 days−$387
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$268
sports 7% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.2% -15.1% 60% 50% -31.1%
≤30d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 50% -21.3%
≤90d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 50% -21.3%
all 14 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 50% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -21.3%
10% -22.6% 50% -28.8%
15% -30.1% 50% -35.7%
20% -36.9% 36% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$205 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2,786
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions21
Markets (closed)14 / 36
History coverage25d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $301 $286 −$15 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $202 $236 +$33 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $227 +$27 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $208 $196 −$12 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $199 $183 −$16 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $204 $175 −$29 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $196 $170 −$26 (-13%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $156 +$56 (+56%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $106 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$27 +44%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 +$9 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$118 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $273 −$269 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $209 −$208 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$94 +92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $104 −$101 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $512 +$479 +94%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$93 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $508 −$498 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $107 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 46¢ $95 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $107 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $61 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $100 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $104 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 46h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $103 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $134 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,785.77 · official $2,878.92 · 87 history records