Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8569…3654
other · 77 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$19 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $298 −$8 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $90 −$8 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $359 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $151 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $172 +$5 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $343 −$11 -3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $174 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $152 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $666 +$4 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $930 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $932 −$2 -0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 18 $150 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $28 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 08 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 21 $12 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% −$23
other 19% +$2
politics 2% +$4
sports 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 58m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 58m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $130 37h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $130 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $76 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $83 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $47 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $63 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $59 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $130 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $130 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $130 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $134 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $135 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $57 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $73 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $130 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $143 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $143 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 28 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 76 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records