Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8569…2267
world · 153 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$276 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$194 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,689
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses84 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions50
Markets (closed)102 / 153
History coverage38d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 50 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$62
14 days+$206
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $498 $503 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $384 $388 +$4 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $282 $304 +$22 (+8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $229 $246 +$18 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $184 $212 +$28 (+15%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 95¢ 100¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $97 $90 −$7 (-7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 65¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+11%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 88¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 97¢ 96¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 95¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +14%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $4 $0 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +39%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$16 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $35 −$16 -46%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 $0 +14%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $76 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 $0 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $4 $0 +13%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $33 +$19 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $122 +$4 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $113 +$3 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $208 +$4 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $405 +$41 +10%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Norbert Gombos vs Jan Choinski Jun 08 $4 $0 +14%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $11 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $47 +$3 +6%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3 $0 +13%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $41 +$17 +41%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $29 −$5 -16%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $36 −$12 -34%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $4 $0 +14%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $4 $0 +14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 $0 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $25 −$18 -72%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $4 $0 +14%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$110
politics 33% +$48
crypto 14% +$17
other 7% +$21
sports 5% +$18
culture 2% +$12
finance 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $3 2m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $1 2m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 75¢ $4 20m
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo SELL Wanted Goons 80¢ $8 21m
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 68¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo SELL Wanted Goons 60¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 73¢ $4 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 81¢ $4 10h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $4 10h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Anubis Gaming 81¢ $4 10h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 71¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 41¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $4 10h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 80¢ $4 10h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $4 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 85¢ $5 11h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 88¢ $7 11h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 88¢ $2 11h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 70¢ $7 11h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 50¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +5.2% -4.9% 84% 47% -5.5%
≤30d 97 +22.9% +11.2% 82% 36% -7.0%
≤90d 102 +21.0% +9.5% 82% 35% -7.6%
all 102 +21.0% +9.5% 82% 35% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 35% -7.6%
10% -1.0% 11% -16.4%
15% -10.5% 9% -24.5%
20% -19.3% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,689.36 · official $2,689.38 (match) · 545 history records