Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x856b…2b6d crypto 99 markets active 4h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% $0
sports 28% −$6
tech 16% +$1
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -15.2% -23.3% 62% 49% -23.0%
≤30d 49 -16.9% -24.8% 61% 45% -28.9%
≤90d 97 +8.7% -1.7% 58% 46% -13.5%
all 97 +8.7% -1.7% 58% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 46% -13.5%
10% -11.1% 41% -21.8%
15% -19.7% 35% -29.3%
20% -27.5% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 +$1 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 61¢ $1 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $1 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.01 · official $2.01 (match) · 197 history records