Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
85 0x856c…3d49 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$26 (-21%) realized −$12 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$4
other 47% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 3 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 33% -4.2%
≤90d 3 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 33% -4.2%
all 3 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 33% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 33% -4.2%
10% -7.7% 33% -13.3%
15% -16.6% 33% -21.7%
20% -24.8% 33% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 86¢ 55¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $26 +$18 +67%
Will 100T make a roster change before August? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $40 −$13 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $44 20m
Will 100T make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 21m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 59¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 51¢ $27 1h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 75¢ $40 46h
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 46h
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.54 · official $25.54 (match) · 8 history records