Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x856c…0ef3 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-4%) realized −$214 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$168
14 days−$259
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$136
world 29% +$73
sports 26% −$455
crypto 8% +$115
tech 3% −$180
finance 3% −$4
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% -15.9%
≤30d 17 -2.1% -11.5% 53% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 28 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 36% -13.6%
all 28 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -13.6%
10% -29.4% 25% -21.9%
15% -36.2% 18% -29.4%
20% -42.4% 11% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$107 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage67d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 35¢ $35 $3 −$32 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $188 +$137 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $495 +$105 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $409 −$403 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $425 −$20 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $256 +$258 +101%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $218 −$213 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $309 +$75 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $407 +$93 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $274 −$270 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $244 +$101 +42%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $60 −$11 -18%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $127 −$4 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $420 +$80 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 +$94 +89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $121 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $300 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 18 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $69 −$69 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 03 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $294 +$106 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $328 −$22 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $180 −$180 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $420 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $41 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $69 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $188 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $495 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $409 37h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $405 37h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $425 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $256 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $218 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $309 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $407 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $274 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $244 9d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down $1 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 12¢ $4 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 85¢ $19 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 64¢ $14 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 64¢ $6 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 64¢ $7 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 51¢ $9 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 64¢ $96 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 66¢ $121 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 66¢ $5 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 36¢ $18 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 57¢ $13 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 51¢ $25 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 50¢ $1 10d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 59¢ $30 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 50¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.65 (match) · 96 history records