Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x856c…df2f crypto 1409 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$175 (+7%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +315% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +219% what you keep after slip
Net edge+219%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%352W / 786L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day192.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$184
14 days+$394
30 days+$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+275.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 +378.2% +332.7% 32% 31% +6.3%
≤30d 1138 +314.9% +275.4% 31% 30% -6.2%
≤90d 1138 +314.9% +275.4% 31% 30% -6.2%
all 1138 +314.9% +275.4% 31% 30% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +275.4% 30% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here +239.5% 29% -15.2%
15% +206.7% 28% -23.4%
20% +176.6% 27% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +315% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +248% → late +382% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses352 / 786
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1138 / 1409
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day192.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1138 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$14 +17546%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$8 +10596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +7277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +7277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +730%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +6918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +5830%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +5788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +3619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +5112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +3986%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +4650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +3939%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1789%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -797%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1572%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -2072%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +675%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +907%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -962%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -856%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -780%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1640%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1789%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.02 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records