Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x856d…9e2e other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 69L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$4
world 36% −$7
other 10% $0
economics 8% +$1
politics 4% −$15
crypto 1% +$8
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 24 +4.4% -5.6% 25% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 34 +2.5% -7.3% 24% 3% -9.8%
all 109 +4.8% -5.2% 37% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -14.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -30.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage486d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $180 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $275 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $83 −$6 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $147 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $444 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $137 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $518 +$3 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $315 +$6 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -36%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $160 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $52 −$7 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $139 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $166 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $166 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $165 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $151 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $159 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $65 −$11 -17%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,061 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $969 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,929 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $488 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $963 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $248 −$6 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $969 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 18 $9 +$3 +28%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $109 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $99 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $37 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $37 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $77 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $38 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $45 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $147 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $147 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $147 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $147 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $147 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $61 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $61 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $134 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $79 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $54 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $132 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $145 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $118 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records