Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x856d…2406 sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%86W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$22
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$33
crypto 32% −$27
other 24% −$20
world 2% +$3
tech 2% +$10
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.6% -5.3% 68% 65% -13.1%
≤30d 134 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -9.7%
≤90d 134 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -9.7%
all 134 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 62% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 62% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 54% -18.4%
15% -25.5% 40% -26.3%
20% -32.8% 27% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses86 / 48
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions17
Markets (closed)134 / 151
History coverage13d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 51¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+94%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$6 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$18 +50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$12 +57%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$7 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $38 −$5 -12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Libema Open (Doubles): Maleckova/Skoch vs Chan/Sonmez Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 −$16 -65%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $5 21m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $5 44m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 72¢ $7 45m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 45m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 45m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 45m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 46m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $50 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.88 · official $135.88 (match) · 287 history records