Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x856d…930e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+14%) realized +$35 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$22
sports 41% +$12
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 67% +10.0%
≤30d 9 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 56% +12.7%
≤90d 9 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 56% +12.7%
all 9 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 56% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 56% +12.7%
10% -11.8% 56% +1.9%
15% -20.4% 56% -7.9%
20% -28.2% 33% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $35 +$15 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 76¢ $15 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 52¢ $10 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.18 · official $88.18 (match) · 29 history records