Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x856d…09bc
sports · 314 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses174 / 129
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions11
Markets (closed)303 / 314
History coverage73d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 11 History 303 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 54¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 61¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $81 +$7 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 −$1 -72%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 +$1 +146%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1 $0 +40%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 +$1 +57%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 +$1 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $2 +$1 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $2 $0 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$4 +198%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $1 $0 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +57%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $2 $0 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $1 $0 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$132
crypto 36% +$39
other 5% +$45
weather 0% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 33m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1 36m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 89¢ $88 40m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 80¢ $30 43m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $25 55m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 92¢ $25 59m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9h
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $0 22h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 17¢ $0 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 44¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 66¢ $1 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 65¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 78 +9.3% -1.1% 62% 59% -4.9%
≤90d 303 -7.1% -15.9% 57% 51% -10.9%
all 303 -7.1% -15.9% 57% 51% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 51% -10.9%
10% -24.0% 40% -19.4%
15% -31.3% 31% -27.2%
20% -38.0% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 773 history records