Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x856e…f45a crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,990 (-7%) realized −$1,990 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%125W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$314
7 days−$314
14 days−$314
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,906
world 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.1% -35.8% 40% 40% -31.0%
≤30d 21 +58.8% +43.7% 33% 33% -40.9%
≤90d 103 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 37% -19.5%
all 281 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 44% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -18.1%
10% -23.9% 42% -25.9%
15% -31.3% 36% -33.1%
20% -38.0% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$72 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses125 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)281 / 281
History coverage157d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 281 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $136 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $156 +$151 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $123 +$63 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $157 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $181 +$63 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$62 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $59 +$85 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $117 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $105 +$192 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $105 +$179 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $124 +$83 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 18 $16 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $35 +$75 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 18 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 10 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 10 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 10 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 09 $75 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 09 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 09 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 09 $40 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $36 −$22 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 25 $137 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 25 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$35 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 768 history records