Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x856e…6e34 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$600 (+18%) realized +$852 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$123
other 24% +$1,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 56% 56% +35.3%
≤30d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 56% 56% +35.3%
≤90d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 56% 56% +35.3%
all 9 +38.6% +25.4% 56% 56% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.4% 56% +35.3%
10% ← realistic here +13.4% 44% +22.3%
15% +2.4% 44% +10.5%
20% -7.6% 33% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$149 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$852
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 32¢ 28¢ $278 $237 −$41 (-15%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 6¢ $348 $137 −$211 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $878 −$152 -17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $561 +$1,077 +192%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $493 −$232 -47%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $144 +$125 +87%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 +$49 +41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $147 +$490 +334%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $108 +$12 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $80 10m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 32¢ $204 10m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $357 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 16¢ $244 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 24¢ $64 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $307 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,480 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $157 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $158 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $402 2h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $216 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $241 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $481 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $2 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $505 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $277 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 22¢ $268 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 11¢ $144 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $637 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $147 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $147 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $119 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $119 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $108 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 25¢ $112 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.63 · official $382.25 · 29 history records