Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x856f…d64d politics 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,204 (-8%) realized −$3,219 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%47W / 13L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$267
30 days−$3,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4,456
politics 22% +$834
other 16% +$471
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.8% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 19 -13.2% -21.5% 68% 26% -29.2%
≤90d 60 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 38% -16.7%
all 60 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 38% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 38% -16.7%
10% -19.9% 10% -24.7%
15% -27.6% 5% -32.0%
20% -34.7% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,025) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$494 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,183
Realized−$3,219
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses47 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage92d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $512 $523 +$11 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $495 $496 +$1 (+0%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $161 $164 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 21 $171 +$8 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 21 $299 +$21 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $47 +$4 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $18 −$8 -44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,319 +$241 +18%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $751 +$166 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $67 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $64 +$7 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $66 −$6 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $103 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3,504 +$257 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 25 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $278 +$34 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $1,465 −$1,465 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $1,025 +$45 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $924 +$109 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,445 +$80 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $568 +$24 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $47 +$5 +11%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 19 $1,679 −$1,041 -62%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 19 $220 +$6 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $281 +$36 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 17 $460 +$34 +7%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? May 17 $237 +$10 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? May 16 $232 +$42 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 15 $253 +$72 +29%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $199 +$98 +50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $350 +$53 +15%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $391 +$33 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 13 $173 +$21 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $1,997 +$324 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 12 $126 +$16 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? May 10 $147 +$20 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? May 10 $375 +$94 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $325 +$19 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? May 06 $100 +$9 +9%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 04 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 03 $414 +$35 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $1,623 +$161 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? May 01 $130 +$103 +79%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $282 +$32 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $116 +$14 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $200 +$20 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $4,093 +$577 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $108 +$8 +8%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $1,601 −$749 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $188 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $179 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $309 2h
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 96¢ $320 2h
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 91¢ $121 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 5¢ $10 10d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 89¢ $178 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $18 11d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $74 11d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 11d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $78 11d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $84 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 11d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $161 11d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $401 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,118 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $915 20d
Nothing Ever Happens: May SELL Nothing 100¢ $916 20d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 94¢ $73 24d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 25d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 78¢ $169 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No 10¢ $20 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 14¢ $28 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? BUY Yes 88¢ $176 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 26d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 66¢ $1 26d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 66¢ $1 26d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 66¢ $31 26d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 68¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.22 · official $1,183.49 (match) · 294 history records