Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8570…a720 crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$157 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%77W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days+$26
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$67
sports 13% −$28
other 7% −$56
weather 3% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 42% -9.1%
≤30d 169 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 169 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 42% -8.4%
all 169 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 42% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 42% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 38% -17.2%
15% -28.4% 36% -25.2%
20% -35.4% 33% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses77 / 92
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)169 / 174
History coverage7d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $106 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $91 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$40 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $119 −$46 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $230 −$46 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$29 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $178 +$62 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $259 −$70 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $229 +$34 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$52 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $165 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$34 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $147 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $76 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $47 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $49 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $46 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$26 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$32 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Panama vs. England: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.14 · official $199.14 (match) · 524 history records