Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8572…c0a6 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-12%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$190
other 5% −$47
finance 1% +$10
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 54% 54% -22.7%
≤30d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 54% 54% -22.7%
≤90d 32 -23.7% -30.9% 38% 34% -31.0%
all 32 -23.7% -30.9% 38% 34% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 34% -31.0%
10% -37.5% 34% -37.6%
15% -43.6% 34% -43.6%
20% -49.1% 34% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage46d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $79 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$27 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$19 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$26 +100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 04 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 04 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 04 $23 +$22 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 04 $22 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 04 $50 +$72 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 04 $22 −$2 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $49 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $59 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 45d
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $21 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $23 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records