Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x857c…d56d crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$159 (-8%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$87
sports 3% −$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -9.9%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -9.9%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 59% -9.9%
all 51 -26.2% -33.3% 37% 33% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 33% -12.6%
10% -39.6% 31% -21.0%
15% -45.5% 20% -28.6%
20% -50.8% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage235d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $94 +$89 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$108 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$84 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $210 −$121 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $78 +$28 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$24 +46%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 07 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 07 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Nov 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Oct 31 $35 −$24 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Oct 30 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 30 $1 −$1 -89%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 30 $120 +$39 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 30 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Oct 30 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Oct 30 $20 −$15 -75%
Pacers vs. Mavericks Oct 30 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Oct 30 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Oct 29 $158 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Oct 29 $20 +$9 +45%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Muller Oct 29 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Oct 29 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Miomir Kecmanovic Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 29 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Oct 29 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 29 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7AM ET Oct 29 $10 +$5 +49%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Chennai Open: Mai Hontama vs Storm Hunter Oct 29 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5AM ET Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $142 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $136 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records