Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8580…9e1c
sports · 1580 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$21 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1576 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1578 / 1580
History coverage82d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 2 History 1578 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Liam Millar: 1+ assists No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+9.5) Aurora Gaming 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Spirit 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Canada to win the second half? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Cyle Larin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Liam Millar: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-3.5) vs Donstu Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+9.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: OC Safi 0 - 3 Kawkab AC? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 2 - 3 Maghreb AS de Fès? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Haita vs. Andreescu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Mazdrashki vs. Gima: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Uda vs. Chen: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Orlov vs Mujakic Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Cordoba vs. Maksimovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Cordoba vs. Maksimovic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Women Madrid: Completed Match: Neus Torner Sensano vs Carmen Galla Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Krutykh vs Sakamoto Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Sensano vs. Guevara: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Ares (-9.5) vs ex-RUBY (+9.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Teunissen vs. Gokpinar: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bernet vs. Schlagenhauf: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bernet vs. Schlagenhauf: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Mettraux vs. Stankovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Iatcenko vs. Milanese: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: CD (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kim (-1.5) vs Yamasaki (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Pavel Šulc: 3+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Lukáš Provod: 2+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum ETF Flows on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Adam Hložek: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Lee Donggyeong: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Fullana vs Souza Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$9
other 46% +$15
politics 1% $0
world 1% −$4
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2m
Liam Millar: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 19m
Cyle Larin: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 19m
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 23m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Spirit 100¢ $5 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+9.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 99¢ $5 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-3.5) vs Donstu Esports (+3.5) BUY OLDBOYS PL 99¢ $5 2h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? BUY Sri Lanka 100¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 2 - 3 Maghreb AS de Fès? BUY No 100¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: OC Safi 0 - 3 Kawkab AC? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) BUY GenOne 100¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) BUY PARIVISION 100¢ $5 7h
Haita vs. Andreescu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 7h
Mazdrashki vs. Gima: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 8h
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $4 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 8h
Uda vs. Chen: Total Games O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 9h
Cordoba vs. Maksimovic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 9h
Cordoba vs. Maksimovic: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 9h
Set 2 Winner: Orlov vs Mujakic BUY Orlov 99¢ $5 10h
Set 2 Winner: Krutykh vs Sakamoto BUY Krutykh 99¢ $5 10h
Sensano vs. Guevara: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 839 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1578 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 1578 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.96 · official $19.96 (match) · 3500 history records