Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8581…a2d5 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$166 (-8%) realized −$159 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$307
other 18% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -19.8%
≤30d 20 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -19.8%
≤90d 20 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -19.8%
all 20 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 25% -19.8%
10% -36.4% 25% -27.5%
15% -42.5% 25% -34.5%
20% -48.2% 20% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$75 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 73¢ 72¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Saudi Arabia 87¢ 86¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $160 −$58 -36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $160 +$245 +154%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $82 +$114 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $82 +$154 +188%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $81 +$382 +474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $91 +$33 +36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 87¢ $92 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $94 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 73¢ $96 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $79 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $81 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $82 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 77¢ $79 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 34¢ $82 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $86 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $81 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $81 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $84 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $85 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $87 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $86 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $89 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $91 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $91 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $50 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.92 · official $272.92 (match) · 47 history records