Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8583…ca05 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-5%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%64W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$26
sports 33% −$238
crypto 17% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.9% -5.1% 82% 38% -9.8%
≤30d 87 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 99 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 40% -14.2%
all 99 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -14.2%
10% -25.3% 18% -22.4%
15% -32.5% 8% -29.9%
20% -39.1% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses64 / 35
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage30d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$31 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $7 −$4 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $6 $0 +7%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $9 −$4 -39%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $18 −$9 -52%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $92 +$12 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $80 +$9 +11%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 31 $44 +$18 +40%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $106 −$69 -66%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records