Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8583…3f3c sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,799 (-9%) realized −$3,792 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%60W / 70L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$600est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,239
7 days−$4,714
14 days−$3,392
30 days−$4,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,729
other 2% −$155
crypto 0% −$196
world 0% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.6% -23.7% 45% 44% -25.6%
≤30d 130 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 45% -18.8%
≤90d 130 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 45% -18.8%
all 130 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 45% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -18.8%
10% -26.5% 43% -26.6%
15% -33.6% 41% -33.7%
20% -40.1% 39% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$280 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized−$3,792
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses60 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$600
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage25d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $993 $986 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,994 −$1,965 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $996 −$983 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $91 −$90 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,410 −$1,400 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,196 +$530 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $150 −$147 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $300 −$296 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $97 −$95 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $157 +$125 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $139 +$130 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $997 +$340 +34%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,012 +$145 +14%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $125 −$11 -9%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $712 +$479 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $398 +$315 +79%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $294 −$291 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $995 +$698 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $476 −$448 -94%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $96 +$173 +180%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $102 +$107 +105%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $498 −$493 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $358 −$354 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $203 +$148 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $697 +$332 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $129 −$127 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $496 +$332 +67%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $533 +$460 +86%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $305 +$27 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $1,995 +$2,019 +101%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,991 −$1,959 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $502 −$494 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $948 −$935 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,007 −$995 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $299 +$210 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $199 −$196 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $299 −$296 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $206 −$203 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $297 +$217 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $299 +$193 +64%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $100 −$97 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $140 −$137 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$210 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 +$138 +146%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $188 −$184 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $134 +$152 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $497 +$334 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,002 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,994 5h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $996 8h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $91 11h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,410 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,726 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,197 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $999 15h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 49¢ $150 16h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 60¢ $152 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Matteo Arnaldi 38¢ $97 17h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ $148 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $139 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,337 28h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $157 29h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,157 29h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $997 30h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,012 34h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $114 34h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $125 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,191 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $712 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $713 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $398 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $194 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,693 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $995 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $985.78 · official $985.92 (match) · 233 history records