Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8585…eef1 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-3%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$211
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$13
sports 39% −$143
other 5% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.8% -6.0% 42% 42% +16.2%
≤30d 26 +3.8% -6.0% 42% 42% +16.2%
≤90d 148 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 40% -10.3%
all 148 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -10.3%
10% -24.5% 39% -18.9%
15% -31.8% 38% -26.8%
20% -38.5% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 87
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage88d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$69 +136%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $41 +$48 +119%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $73 +$56 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$52 +103%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$29 +188%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $6 +$16 +264%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$40 +194%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 +$53 +122%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$33 +93%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5) Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-16.5) Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-7.5) Mar 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Lakers (-15.5) Mar 28 $11 +$7 +67%
Spread: Warriors (-14.5) Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $1 −$1 -75%
Spread: Warriors (-12.5) Mar 28 $8 −$2 -25%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Mar 28 $4 −$4 -93%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $5 +$5 +98%
Spread: Lakers (-16.5) Mar 28 $10 $0 -2%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 28 $6 −$3 -50%
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-14.5) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $13 +$23 +174%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Mar 27 $5 −$5 -89%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 27 $4 +$5 +126%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Mar 26 $17 +$13 +78%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Mar 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $81 45m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $120 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 58¢ $20 3h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 30¢ $15 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Fr BUY $31 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $31 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Unite BUY 32¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $18 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down $2 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $210.00 · 639 history records