Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8588…29e9 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
other 17% −$11
politics 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 33 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -11.8%
10% -28.9% 0% -20.2%
15% -35.8% 0% -27.9%
20% -42.1% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $80 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? May 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Johni Broome win the Wooden Award? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $7 +$1 +8%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $36 4h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $36 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $23 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $24 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $12 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $19 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $21 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $43 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records