Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8589…e2de
crypto · 240 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$159 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,597
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses135 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 240
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2570.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $442 $813 +$371 (+84%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 39¢ 100¢ $222 $571 +$348 (+157%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $115 $168 +$53 (+46%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $59 $1 −$58 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 46¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+117%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $547 −$547 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$8 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $219 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$10 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $141 +$12 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$20 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $148 −$8 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$7 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$26 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$11 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $106 +$20 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $161 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 273 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 273 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 38% -9.9%
all 273 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2570.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 38% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 29% -18.5%
15% -30.3% 19% -26.4%
20% -37.1% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,597.09 · official $1,596.66 (match) · 3500 history records