Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x858a…b00d crypto 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$316 (-5%) realized −$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%120W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$208
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$563
sports 13% −$288
other 4% +$153
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 59% 53% -27.0%
≤30d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 59% 53% -27.0%
≤90d 117 -6.1% -15.0% 60% 49% -19.8%
all 194 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 50% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -21.2%
10% -16.4% 38% -28.7%
15% -24.5% 32% -35.6%
20% -31.9% 21% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses120 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage628d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$14 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$26 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$43 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$23 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$54 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$49 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$16 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 25 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 25 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 25 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 25 $45 −$20 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 25 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 25 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 25 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 24 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 24 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 24 $50 +$32 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $14 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $19 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $67 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $12 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $8 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1235 history records