Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x858b…a2ce weather 800 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,919 (-2%) realized −$1,921 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate87%689W / 104L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$63
14 days+$2
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$327
crypto 0% $0
other 0% −$13
politics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.0% -30.3% 37% 21% -13.4%
≤30d 792 +2.0% -7.7% 87% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 793 +2.0% -7.7% 87% 6% -9.9%
all 793 +2.0% -7.7% 87% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 6% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,921
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses689 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)793 / 800
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $42 $46 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $15 $18 +$4 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $39 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $23 −$10 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$31 +216%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$9 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $32 −$24 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $35 −$18 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 −$24 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$12 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$12 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $75 −$19 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$32 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 −$8 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 +$23 +172%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $67 +$6 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $486 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $33 −$30 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $30 −$12 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $39 −$4 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.52 · official $70.55 (match) · 3500 history records