Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x858e…51ee world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 49L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$11
politics 21% $0
other 17% +$2
economics 6% $0
sports 5% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 55% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 28 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 4% -8.6%
≤90d 71 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 3% -9.2%
all 79 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.2%
10% -21.1% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.8% 1% -25.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage526d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $14 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 +$9 +30%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $87 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $92 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $77 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $115 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +17%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $51 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $51 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $28 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $27 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $55 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $25 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records