Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8592…dc04 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized +$18 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +1.3% -8.4% 23% 23% -29.6%
≤30d 70 +1.3% -8.4% 23% 23% -29.6%
≤90d 70 +1.3% -8.4% 23% 23% -29.6%
all 70 +1.3% -8.4% 23% 23% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 23% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 23% -36.3%
15% -25.1% 23% -42.5%
20% -32.5% 23% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $140 $106 −$34 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$12 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$9 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$7 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $0 +$4 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.06 · official $106.07 (match) · 122 history records