Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x8593…4668 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$4,174 (+36%) realized +$6,279 · open −$1,463
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$5,961
14 days+$5,961
30 days+$6,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$6,414
other 26% −$1,268
crypto 21% −$318
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -15.9% -23.9% 22% 16% +344.4%
≤30d 65 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 20% +69.7%
≤90d 86 -3.8% -13.0% 37% 26% +59.6%
all 89 -4.7% -13.8% 36% 25% +59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 25% +59.4%
10% -22.0% 18% +44.1%
15% -29.6% 8% +30.2%
20% -36.5% 7% +17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +76% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$16 · ×14.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.08 per $1 lost it wins $8.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized+$6,279
Unrealized−$1,463
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage141d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $1,607 $388 −$1,219 (-76%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $500 $286 −$214 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 32¢ 8¢ $38 $10 −$28 (-73%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $238 +$180 +76%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $51 −$14 -28%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -52%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$10 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
West Ham United FC leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$25 -82%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $19 −$10 -51%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 08 $413 +$6,141 +1487%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 08 $127 −$38 -30%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 08 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $58 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$2 -15%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $195 −$93 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $2,500 +$128 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $60 −$30 -50%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $50 −$14 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $50 +$250 +501%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $418 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $188 2h
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $189 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $38 29h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 3d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $10 4d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.09 · official $702.09 (match) · 424 history records