Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8593…8cfb sports 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,962 (+19%) realized +$17,986 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%189W / 126L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days−$271
14 days+$1,345
30 days+$1,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$13,817
other 25% +$3,574
crypto 0% +$26
tech 0% +$30
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -12.2%
≤30d 112 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 55% -4.3%
≤90d 309 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 59% +9.8%
all 315 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 60% +7.8%
10% -15.8% 57% -2.5%
15% -23.9% 45% -11.9%
20% -31.4% 30% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$125 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$17,986
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses189 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions5
Markets (closed)315 / 321
History coverage100d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 61¢ 36¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$16 +75%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$19 -21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,432 +$414 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$6 +103%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$6 -12%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 17 $403 −$70 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $331 −$329 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $215 +$117 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $145 +$69 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$93 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$110 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $393 −$231 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 −$119 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $62 −$38 -62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $48 +$28 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $75 −$36 -48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$23 +97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $150 +$62 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $229 −$227 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 −$83 -55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $350 +$191 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$26 +197%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $355 −$92 -26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 +$57 +11%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$64 +63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$77 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $114 −$112 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 +$19 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $60 +$21 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$52 +105%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $24 +$18 +73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $55 +$50 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $50 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $38 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $73 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $92 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $92 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $57 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,755 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $867 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $132 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 18h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $44 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $333 18h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $333 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $331 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $331 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $215 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $145 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $145 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $52 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $162 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $162 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.63 · official $241.22 (match) · 614 history records