Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

85 0x8594…6c1b other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$137 (+24%) realized +$136 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+8.3%	-2.0%	75%	75%	+17.0%
≤30d	4	+8.3%	-2.0%	75%	75%	+17.0%
≤90d	4	+8.3%	-2.0%	75%	75%	+17.0%
all	4	+8.3%	-2.0%	75%	75%	+17.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.0%	75%	+17.0%
10%	-11.4%	75%	+5.8%
15%	-19.9%	75%	-4.5%
20%	-27.8%	0%	-13.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$50 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized+$136

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage6d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	70¢	81¢	$100	$116	+$16 (+16%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	11¢	2¢	$20	$4	−$16 (-78%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$97	+48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$38	+38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.87 · official $120.88 (match) · 10 history records