Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8594…a044 crypto 84 markets active 24h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%48W / 36L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$4
other 36% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -11.2% -19.6% 58% 48% -8.6%
≤30d 84 -10.2% -18.7% 57% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 84 -10.2% -18.7% 57% 48% -8.9%
all 84 -10.2% -18.7% 57% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 48% -8.9%
10% -26.5% 39% -17.6%
15% -33.6% 29% -25.6%
20% -40.1% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses48 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $27 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records